When Will The Recession Officially Start?

With 22 million jobs lost in the past four weeks, a record drop in retail sales, and huge drops in industrial production and housing starts, it is safe to say we are likely in a recession. Even the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the recent Beige Book said that “economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly.” We highly doubt the Fed would say that if they didn’t believe the economy was in a recession. Read more

Big Annual Declines Are Rare

Stocks have rallied nicely off the March 23 lows on the back of a bold policy response from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lawmakers in Washington, DC, which was followed by signs that a peak in growth of COVID-19 cases may come soon. At Wednesday’s close, the S&P 500 Index stood 19% above the March 23 closing low but down 17.7% for the year. That begs the question whether a positive year is possible with a pretty big hole still left to dig out of. Read more

3.24.20 Bear Market Continues

I hope this finds you and your family safe, healthy and doing well!  Wow!  How much our lives have changed in a little over a month.  Not too terribly long ago we were celebrating Punxsutawney Phil not seeing his shadow and the potential early onset of Spring.  Now, we’re celebrating the warmer weather being ushered in as hopefully another arrow in our quiver to help to eradicate a virus that started across the world in Wuhan, China.  Read more

First Emergency Rate Cut By the Fed Since 2008

In a move in which the timing was more compelling than the decision itself, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced this morning that it unanimously decided to cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (0.5%) from the 1.5-1.75% range to the 1-1.25% range. The surprise move marked the Fed’s first rate action outside of a regularly scheduled meeting since October 2008. Read more