The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced Monday that the economy bottomed in April 2020, making the COVID-19 recession the shortest on record and the new expansion over a year old.
NBER doesn’t change recession calls once made and awaiting strong confirmation is perfectly normal—calling the recession 15 months after it ended is in line with the historical delay.
The average post-World War II expansion has averaged more than five years and the last four expansions more than eight years. The current expansion is still young.
With the Federal Reserve currently not expecting to even start hiking rates until 2023, plenty of fiscal and monetary stimulus still in the system, and a rapidly recovering job market, we don’t see a recession immediately on the horizon, which is usually good news for stocks.
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