Big Annual Declines Are Rare

Stocks have rallied nicely off the March 23 lows on the back of a bold policy response from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lawmakers in Washington, DC, which was followed by signs that a peak in growth of COVID-19 cases may come soon. At Wednesday’s close, the S&P 500 Index stood 19% above the March 23 closing low but down 17.7% for the year. That begs the question whether a positive year is possible with a pretty big hole still left to dig out of. Read more

3.24.20 Bear Market Continues

I hope this finds you and your family safe, healthy and doing well!  Wow!  How much our lives have changed in a little over a month.  Not too terribly long ago we were celebrating Punxsutawney Phil not seeing his shadow and the potential early onset of Spring.  Now, we’re celebrating the warmer weather being ushered in as hopefully another arrow in our quiver to help to eradicate a virus that started across the world in Wuhan, China.  Read more

3.20.20 Managing the Stay-At-Homeness

I trust that you and your family are safe.  Well, we’ve made it through the first few days of the The President’s Coronavirus Guidelines For America to slow the spread of the virus.  So far so good on this end.  Our office continues to operate efficiently, and everyone on our team has been at home now since Tuesday.  We plan to continue to work this way until it is no longer needed.  We are fully functioning via phone, video conference and social media should you want to connect.  Let’s share a few links going into the weekend that may help you manage all of this stay-at-homeness.  Have a great weekend!  Take care, Tim    Read more

Stocks Approach 2009 Valuations vs. Bonds

We rolled out our Road to Recovery Playbook at the start of the week to help investors gauge where the market is in its bottoming process. The first and most important piece of that playbook—visibility into a peak in new COVID-19 cases—remains elusive, but we hope to have a clearer picture with the next couple of weeks as containment efforts have more time to work. We continue to monitor cases daily and plan to update you on that progress regularly during this crisis. Read more

Low Valuations Imply Better Long-Term Performance

The dizzying volatility over the past few weeks has left all of our heads spinning as we wait for containment efforts in the United States and elsewhere to help slow new cases of COVID-19 (coronavirus). Public health is of course our primary concern. But beyond that, from an economic and market perspective, there are many difficult but important questions: Read more

3.10.20 The Correction Continues

I hope you and your family are well!  Yesterday, March 9th, was the eleventh anniversary of the final bottoming process of the bear market from 2007 to 2009.  How ironic that the world elected to celebrate this iconic anniversary with, you guessed it, another panic attack. Read more

First Emergency Rate Cut By the Fed Since 2008

In a move in which the timing was more compelling than the decision itself, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced this morning that it unanimously decided to cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (0.5%) from the 1.5-1.75% range to the 1-1.25% range. The surprise move marked the Fed’s first rate action outside of a regularly scheduled meeting since October 2008. Read more